DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report | OCT. '19

Homes priced between $300,000 and $499,999 have greatest buyer demand in Metro Denver. The price segments for which homebuyers have gained more negotiating power are condos priced between $750,000 and $999,999 and the single-family homes priced over $1 million.

October 2, 2019

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September ended with 2.04 months of single-family home inventory and 2.12 months of condos for sale. According to DMAR, housing inventory under five months is considered a seller’s market.

“In the Denver area, the real estate season is usually busiest from March through September,” said Jill Schafer, Chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee and Metro Denver REALTOR®. “This year, you could say we’ve been turning from an extremely fast-paced market to a slower moving, healthier one. There have been changes, but we have not shifted to a buyer’s market. Let me repeat that. We have not shifted to a buyer’s market. Sellers still hold the upper hand.”

Schafer adds, “Don’t get me wrong, we have been seeing changes. The number of price reductions has gone up. The spread between the list price and the sold price has widened. And the average days on market went up.”

The rate of housing price appreciation has slowed, but it has not reversed. Overall, while it decreased month over month, the average sold price of a home in September was still up 6.06 percent year over year and 2.52 percent year to date, $483,734 and $487,814 respectively. Year to date, the close-price to list-price ratio was at 99.31 percent in September, whereas it has been slightly over 100 percent since 2015. Furthermore, the days on market has increased 25 percent year to date from 24 days last year to 30 days.

Schafer notes that there are two segments of the housing market for which homebuyers have “a little more buying power”: condos priced between $750,000 and $999,999 and the single-family homes priced over $1 million.

On the other hand, homes priced between $300,000 and $499,999 have greatest buyer demand in Metro Denver. Andrew Abrams, DMAR Market Trends Committee member and Metro Denver REALTOR®, shares: “Months of inventory for homes priced between $300,000 and $499,999 were an astonishing 1.33 for single-family homes and 1.97 for condos. This means that if no houses hit the market in this price range, there would not be any more single-family homes to sell in 5-6 weeks and only two months for condos. This price range has the lowest months of inventory compared to all other segments of the housing market.”

Looking at the numbers, the record-high housing inventory for the month of September was in 2006 with 31,450 active listings, and 2015 represented the record low with 7,516. For comparison, September 2019 ended with 9,286 active listings.

Our monthly report also includes statistics and analyses in its supplemental “Luxury Market Report” (properties sold for $1 million or greater), “Signature Market Report” (properties sold between $750,000 and $999,999), “Premier Market Report” (properties sold between $500,000 and $749,999), and “Classic Market” (properties sold between $300,000 and $499,999). In September 2019, 177 homes sold and closed for $1 million or greater – down 23.38 percent from August and up 39.37 percent year over year. The closed dollar volume in the luxury segment year to date was $2.88 billion, up 10.73 percent from last year.

The highest-priced single-family home that sold in September was $7,200,000 representing three bedrooms, five bathrooms and 5,075 above ground square feet in Boulder. The highest-priced condo sale was $2,800,000 representing two bedrooms, three bathrooms and 3,042 above ground square feet in Denver.

“Like the sizzling hot temperatures, we had in September, the Luxury Market was hot too,” stated Brigette Modglin, DMAR Market Trends Committee member and Metro Denver REALTOR®.

Sales of single-family homes were up 32.48 percent and condo sales were up 120 percent from one year ago. Modglin adds, “Even with the extremely warm temperatures we still welcomed the fall season, which is when we start to see things slow down.”

Month over month, single-family homes in the Luxury Market had price depreciations with homes selling 96.49 percent from list-price to close-price, down 0.88 percent month over month and 0.42 percent from one year ago. Slowing down too was the single-family sales volume that fell 16.47 percent month over month but was still up year over year with an increase of 45.09 percent.

“Don’t slow down too much though,” comments Modglin. “If buyers are wanting to buy a single-family luxury home, now may be the time. With over six months of inventory for homes priced $1 million plus, we’ve moved from a balanced market slightly into a buyer’s market, and home sellers may be willing to give a little more than they did a month ago and even a year ago.”

The luxury condo market was in demand with condos selling 98.11 percent close-price to list-price, up 1.12 percent month over month and up 6.56 percent year over year. Luxury condo sales were ‘scorching hot’ according to Modglin with, year over year, 12 more condos that sold over $1 million and luxury condo sales volume up 135.07 percent.

Like a hot commodity, luxury condos weren’t taking as long to sell with only 37 average days on market, which was down 28.85 percent month over month and down 57.95 percent from one year ago when it averaged 88 days to sell. Luxury condo buyers are paying $191 more per square foot this year than last year with the price-per-square foot up 52.04 percent at $558.

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