DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report | MAY '22
While inventory is on the rise, so are prices. The average price of a single-family detached home in Denver Metro is $825,073, representing a 3.93 percent increase from last month. With consecutive months of increased prices and interest rates, a buyer's monthly mortgage has increased as well. The average close-price-to-list-price ratio in April for the detached market was 107.29 percent. With the increase in supply, the close-price-to-list-price ratio is an example of how the market was reacting a month ago.
The relationship between closed sales and month-end active inventory impacts the supply and demand of the market and, therefore, many other statistics including average sales price. The most significant factor influencing the supply and demand of this market is interest rates. With many individuals refinancing due to low-interest rates on their house and interest rates north of five percent, there is minimal financial incentive to move.
“While buyers may be thinking they overpaid if they bought two months ago, this is not the case,” commented Andrew Abrams, Chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee and Metro Denver Realtor®. “They likely got a slightly lower interest rate and the market is continuing to rise, just not as fast. In the chaos of the recent market, buyers had been waiving their inspections, doing full appraisal gaps and even offering to make their earnest money non-refundable before getting an inspection. Now, we are shifting to a more responsible market. There will still be bidding wars, appraisal gaps and limited inspection items on future properties, but the frequency of those will be less.”
The increased interest rates are already impacting the amount of inventory sitting on the market. While Denver Metro is still relatively low in inventory, the word “historic” is no longer applicable as there were 610 fewer properties on the market last year compared to today. The market usually sees an 8.59 percent increase in month-over-month inventory. This month, it saw an outstanding 44.26 percent increase.
Our monthly report also includes statistics and analyses in its supplemental “Luxury Market Report” (properties sold for $1 million or greater), “Signature Market Report” (properties sold between $750,000 and $999,999), “Premier Market Report” (properties sold between $500,000 and $749,999), and “Classic Market” (properties sold between $300,000 and $499,999).
Meanwhile, in the Luxury Market, inventory is on the rise, with a 57.65 percent increase in new listings from this time last year. However, as a result of inflation, more homes will cross the threshold into the Luxury Market simply due to list price or more likely due to bidding wars that end 20 percent or more over the original ask price.
In part due to seasonality, new listings for detached homes rose 26.62 percent from last month. However, this is a 63.73 percent jump from last year for new listings. Pending sales rose 27.15 percent to 562 properties and 599 closed homes, a 17.91 percent increase from last month. Unsurprisingly, the average days in MLS decreased to 14 days from 17 last month, while the median days in MLS of four held strong month-over-month.
The close-price-to-list-price ratio jumped slightly to 108.45 percent up just 0.39 percent from last month. Most notably, this data point was 102.62 percent this time last year, which means there has been a 5.68 percent rise in the last year. As such, the price per square foot total also jumped 16.27 percent from last year to $386 per square foot.
“The spring selling season is off to a great stat and it feels as though more inventory is becoming available than even the data represents,” said Libby Levinson-Katz, DMAR Market Trends Committee member and Metro Denver Realtor®. “My partner and I have had more listings this year than we’ve ever had which feels like a slight change in the marketplace with more Denverites opting to either sell investment properties, move out of state or jump into this crazed market. For perspective, the Luxury Market year-to-date has 2,350 new listings with 1,793 closed. Back in 2018, there were 1,283 new listings with 649 closed properties.”
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