DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report | MAY '26

Exhaustion has taken hold on both sides of the transaction table. Homeownership attainability fatigue is leading buyers to pull back, and sellers are locked in place. The May 2026 market data points to a single, identifiable cause, one that has nothing to do with Denver's price trajectory.

Denver home prices are not anomalous. From May 2017 to May 2026, the median sale price grew from $382,000 to $615,000, a six percent average annual increase that mirrors the market's long-run historical norm. That same six percent annual trend holds when measured from March 2020 through May 2026. The pandemic surge and subsequent flattening settled into a textbook appreciation curve.

In March 2020, a buyer purchasing at the $455,000 median price with 10 percent down and a 3.8 percent rate would have carried a monthly principal and interest payment of $1,866. Had rates remained at 3.8 percent, normal six percent annual appreciation would have brought that payment to approximately $2,580 today, consistent with Denver's historical trajectory. Instead, at 6.5 percent, the payment on today's median of $615,000 is $3,498. That is an 87 percent increase in six years. The price appreciation accounts for roughly $714 of that monthly difference. The rate increase accounts for $918. The rate isn't compounding the affordability problem. It is the affordability problem.

The market is reflecting this reality on both sides of the transaction. Overall, closed sales fell 6.97 percent year-over-year in May. The attached segment (the market's traditional entry-level product) fell a sharper 17.84 percent. New listings dropped 17.47 percent year-over-year, a direct signal that rate lock-in is suppressing seller activity as meaningfully as it is suppressing buyer demand. Homeowners with three to four percent mortgages face a monthly payment increase of $1,500 to $2,000 on a typical move-up purchase, a gap wide enough to make even well-capitalized sellers pause. That is keeping inventory constrained and transaction volume muted across the board.

Yet the inventory picture carries a nuance worth noting. New listings in May were down 9.49 percent from April, even as the total active inventory at the end of the month grew 6.24 percent to 12,259, a reflection of homes taking longer to sell rather than a surge of new supply. Year-to-date, both total sales volume and closed properties are slightly below 2025 levels.

“Inspection contingencies, seller concessions, and rate buydown negotiations are all back on the table — tools that defined professional value before the frenzy years stripped them away,” said Amanda Snitker, Chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee and Metro Denver Realtor®. “Buyers in today's market are facing prices that align with the market's long-run historical trajectory, and that context matters. Focusing on a rate solution is far more productive than waiting for a 40 percent price correction that the data simply does not support. Every one percent decline in mortgage rates reduces the monthly payment on today's median-priced home by approximately $315, a rate buydown or future refinance away from meaningfully changing the affordability equation without requiring any movement in price.”

Added Snitker, “What the data ultimately reveals is a market functioning as it should, priced as it has historically been, and made unattainable by forces entirely outside it. That is a meaningful distinction, but it does not lower the payment, and it does not make the decision easier. Attainability fatigue is the predictable human response to an unpredictable economic environment.”

Our monthly report also includes statistics and analyses in its supplemental markets that include properties sold for $1 million or greater, properties sold between $750,000 and $999,999 and properties sold between $500,000 and $749,999.
The $1+ million market has proven to be resilient through the spring, and that momentum carried right through May. Pending and closed transactions were up 3.10 percent and 5.29 percent, respectively, driven primarily by the detached market. The attached market in this segment continues to lag, though it is beginning to show signs of life. Older inventory is selling as fewer options come to market, with new inventory dropping 11.59 percent in May. Median days in MLS rose 44.44 percent to 13 days, while average days in MLS dropped 5.41 percent, providing further evidence of this trend. 
Signs of life in the attached $1+ million segment are shining through, and this market showed up strong in May, with closed transactions increasing 45.45 percent month-over-month and 68.42 percent year-over-year. Buyers retain leverage in this segment, as six months of inventory requires sellers to be realistic with pricing and market preparedness. Buyers are taking advantage, as evidenced by a list-price-to-close-price ratio of 97.75 percent and price-per-square-foot down 10.91 percent from 2025. Buyers are finally seeing pricing they are willing to accept, and HOA concerns seem to have eased as fees have stabilized after several volatile years.

Sellers have been more realistic with pricing as they enter the market; however, buyers are forcing their hand and negotiating on older inventory, said Brad Colburn, DMAR Market Trends Committee member and Metro Denver Realtor®. “Has inventory peaked in this segment for the year? Only time will tell.”

Added Colburn, “Overall, the $1+ million market appears to be bucking the trend of buyer and seller fatigue. Buyers and sellers in this segment are finding ways to make it work. The market continues to reward turnkey homes that are priced accurately for 2026, while aging inventory is still holding strong and capturing 99 percent of list price. The $1+ million segment appears to be one of the stronger-performing markets this spring.”

Highlights from May’s closed transactions include the sale of the highest-priced detached home, which was 10 South Lane in Cherry Hills Village, and sold for $9,500,000. The highest attached sale was located at 1441 Wazee Street, Unit #401 in Denver and sold for $3,000,000.

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